Bold Formula 1 Predictions for 2026, and Review of 2025's
- Ryan Wu
- 1 day ago
- 6 min read
By Ryan Wu
As pre-season testing has wrapped up and attention turns to the season opener in Melbourne this weekend, I will revisit my bold, and wildly inaccurate, predictions from last year. I will give myself an accuracy score and offer some new predictions for this season that will hopefully prove to be more accurate.
McLaren will remain as the main title competitor to Red Bull for another season but will ultimately fall short again in their Drivers’ Championship chase.
This was a close one. As a reminder, Lando Norris narrowly edged out Max Verstappen for the Drivers’ Championship by just two points, needing the final race to secure it. McLaren was dominant as a team and appeared to have the Constructors’ Title wrapped up by April, so this prediction came very close to coming true.
Accuracy Score: 6/10 (part way through the year this seemed like a 1/10, if I am to be honest)
The excitement doesn’t last long at Ferrari, as driver controversies follow the Scuderia throughout the year, with questions lingering about who the ‘number one’ driver is, resulting in a slip in the standings.
A year after finishing second in the Constructors’ Standings, Ferrari slipped to fourth as car inconsistencies persisted throughout the season.
What was consistent, however, was who led the team. Charles Leclerc comfortably outperformed his new teammate Lewis Hamilton, who failed to secure a podium for the first time in his career.
Their head-to-head record was as follows:
Qualifying Grand Prix: Leclerc 19 to 5 Hamilton
Sprint: Leclerc 4 to 2 Hamilton
Race Grand Prix: Leclerc 18 to 3 Hamilton
Sprint: Leclerc 3 to 3 Hamilton
Championship Points: Leclerc 242 to 156 Hamilton
Position: Leclerc 5th, Hamilton 6th
No points were awarded at the Chinese Grand Prix after both drivers were disqualified, and neither scored in the Dutch or Sao Paulo Grands Prix after retiring from those races.
Alas, this was another prediction that proved half right, while the other half missed the mark entirely.
Accuracy Score: 5/10
Verstappen dominates again and, with the emergence of Lawson, Red Bull secures both championships.
Max Verstappen endured a difficult start to the season and, by midseason, trailed Oscar Piastri by 97 points in the championship after the Hungarian Grand Prix. However, he responded emphatically, winning six of the final nine races starting at the Italian Grand Prix in Monza. He reminded the world why he was the four-time reigning World Champion, pushing Lando Norris to the very end before ultimately finishing second in the standings by just two points.
The same cannot be said for Liam Lawson, who lasted only two races before being replaced by Yuki Tsunoda. Tsunoda, for what it is worth, did not fare much better in the second Red Bull seat. Lawson still managed to outscore his replacement 38 to 33 by season’s end, but a midseason demotion does little to help the accuracy score.
Accuracy Score: 2/10 (if it weren’t for Verstappen’s second half resurgence this score might be well into the negatives)
George Russell fills the big shoes left by Lewis Hamilton more than adequately and finishes as a top-three driver in the standings.
George Russell claimed two wins in 2025 and finished ahead of both Ferrari drivers. However, he placed a distant fourth in the championship, ending the season 91 points behind Oscar Piastri.
Accuracy Score: 7/10
With Newey aboard and Alonso still defying father time, Aston Martin enjoys a bounce-back season and contends for a top-four finish in the Constructors’ standings.
Fernando Alonso did secure a top ten finish in the Drivers’ standings, but no one would describe Aston Martin’s 2025 season as one of contention. The team fell to seventh in the Constructors’ standings, finishing behind both Racing Bulls and Williams.
Accuracy Score: 2/10
Alpine’s underperforming engine and Jack Doohan’s inconsistency cost the team, resulting in a drop to seventh in the standings.
The good news is that Alpine did not finish seventh in the standings. The bad news is that they finished last, and by a margin of 48 points.
Jack Doohan showed some early inconsistency, recording two DNFs in his first six races before being demoted in favor of Franco Colapinto for the remainder of the season. He ultimately parted ways with Alpine at the end of the year.
Accuracy Score: 9/10
Ocon finds greater consistency, Bearman proves his cameo was no fluke, and Haas finishes sixth — their highest-ever Constructors’ result.
Esteban Ocon enjoyed his best season since 2023, recording nine points finishes. Oliver Bearman performed even better, outscoring his veteran teammate 41 to 38. Unfortunately, Haas finished 13 points behind Racing Bulls in the battle for sixth, but the pairing showed clear promise for the future.
Accuracy Score: 7/10
Yuki Tsunoda fails to show meaningful improvement and loses his F1 seat for 2026.
I am not here to kick a man when he is down so let’s just move on.
Accuracy Score: 10/10
With an improved car and Sainz’s consistency, Williams climbs to seventh in the standings.
Carlos Sainz enjoyed an impressive debut season with Williams, finishing ninth in the Drivers’ standings. His teammate Alex Albon fared even better, placing eighth.
As a team, Williams exceeded expectations. Despite pausing development of their car midway through the season to shift focus to 2026, they secured fifth in the Constructors’ standings, their highest finish since 2017.
Accuracy Score: 9/10
Sauber doubles its points tally but still finishes last in the standings.
Sauber got more than 17x their points total from 2024, ending the season with 70 points. Additionally, with Alpine struggling so severely this year, Sauber avoided finishing last, placing ninth in the Constructors’ standings, just nine points behind Haas in eighth.
Accuracy Score: 8/10
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Predictions for 2026
With a new season approaching and, more importantly, a brand new set of regulations, chaos is likely to follow. Learning from last year and judging by the three days of pre-season testing in Bahrain, it appears that the top four teams from last season McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari will remain at the front of the field.
That said, there is room for surprises, similar to Williams’ resurgence this past year, and there is no guarantee that past performance will carry over under the new regulations.
Teams that interpret new rules correctly and execute strong car designs often enjoy periods of dominance. This was evident during Mercedes’ control of the turbo hybrid era and Red Bull’s recent success with ground effect cars. With that in mind, here are four predictions for the upcoming 2026 season.
A McLaren driver wins the World Championship… but it won’t be Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri came remarkably close to winning his maiden title last season, leading the championship until the United States Grand Prix before relinquishing it to Lando Norris for the remainder of the year. The hope is that McLaren can once again deliver a championship-calibre car and treat fans to another thrilling season-long battle.
Lewis Hamilton will secure his first Ferrari podium… by winning the first race of the season in Australia
It is no secret that the seven-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton did not enjoy a smooth debut season with the Prancing Horse at Ferrari. However, anyone who doubts him does so at their own peril. With a new set of regulations and a strong sense of urgency within the team to secure their first Drivers’ Champion since Kimi Räikkönen in 2007, expect Hamilton and Ferrari to rebound in a significant way, beginning with the opening race of the season.
Cadillac does not finish last in the constructors’ standings… but will be 10th
With a veteran driver pairing of Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas for their debut Formula 1 season in 2026, the hope is that experience will help Cadillac establish early credibility. No one expects the team to contend for race wins in the near future, but reports of strong leadership and a capable engineering group offer optimism. This foundation should be enough to keep Cadillac out of the bottom of the standings, a position that this writer expects Alpine to occupy once again.
There will be six different race winners for the first time since the 2009 season
Much has already been made of how this new generation of cars handles, with Max Verstappen describing them as “Formula E on steroids.” George Russell has also explained to reporters that drivers will be downshifting to first gear more frequently in corners than in previous seasons in order to keep the turbos spooled. This approach has the potential to destabilize the car and demands greater precision from the driver.
In addition, aerodynamic changes aimed at promoting closer racing have simplified the front and rear wings, while the introduction of active aerodynamics has created a learning curve for many drivers. Taken together, these factors suggest that the playing field may be more level than before, potentially opening the door for a wider range of drivers to seize race victories.
The 2026 F1 Season kicks off with the Australian Grand Prix on Sunday, March 8th