By Adam Carabine
Worst Start
Has any driver had a worse start to the year than Austin Dillon? Dillon’s currently sitting 32nd in the standings after four races, and that feels better than it has looked.
After issues at Daytona he finished 37th, 54 laps down. At Atlanta he managed to finish on the lead lap, but in 22nd. His best finish of the year so far was at Vegas the following week with a P16, and most recently he finished 32nd in Phoenix.
It’s still early in the season, but he’s currently on pace to have his worst season ever in the Cup Series. It’s not helped by the striking contrast between him and his teammate, Kyle Busch.
You could argue that Busch hasn’t had the start to the 2024 season he was wanting either. He’s used to performing better than only one Top 10 over the first four races.
But Kyle Busch sits +26 to the playoff cutoff line, and he’s managed to salvage points on days when bad luck strikes.
I remember when news broke that Kyle Busch was leaving Joe Gibbs Racing and heading to RCR, there seemed to be a collective thought that this was going to elevate Austin Dillon far beyond his wildest dreams.
I spoke with Austin Dillon at the end of the 2022 season, and he shared what he thought Kyle’s impact would be:
“Having a champion as a teammate is going to be another part use at RCR, and continue this momentum that we’ve built over this season and last season, and hopefully take one more step to the next level, so we’re really excited.”
“He’s already wearing everybody out, saying ‘Hey, we’ve got to be ready to go,’ so that fire is definitely there and that’s what you want to see. He’s a racer, he eats, sleeps, breathes it, so it’s going to be great having him here.”
We’re in year two of that experiment, and Austin Dillon better hope that tide rises soon.
Best Sign
Despite Ford and Toyota making changes to their car’s bodies over the offseason, until Phoenix it had still been the Chevy show in the Cup Series. Three races, three Chevrolet victories. It was starting to look worrisome for the new bodies.
However, Toyota fought back in Phoenix - at arguably the most important track to make gains. With the championship race being held there in November this year (more on that later, don’t get me started), this was a good sign for Toyota that they might have what it takes come Championship Weekend.
It’s not just that the Toyotas finished well, they were strong throughout the day. The end of the first stage was a dogfight between two Toyotas in Ty Gibbs and Tyler Reddick. Then Christopher Bell basically did the same thing to Reddick at the end of Stage Two.
What was most impressive about the Toyotas in Sunday’s race was their ability to navigate traffic. Phoenix isn’t known as a pass-friendly track, but it didn’t seem to bother the Toyotas as much.
Even Martin Truex Jr., on a different strategy call than the rest, relinquished the lead with 40 or so laps to go for a final pit stop. He came back out on track in 22nd, one lap down. Yes, he was on new tires, but he also was able to work his way through the dirty air, unlapped himself without the help of a lucky dog, and finished the race P7.
If Toyota can get someone in the Championship Four, I’d watch out.
Worst Paint Scheme
Sorry Denny. It was bad. The end.
Biggest Need for Change
NASCAR has proven time and time again that they’re willing to try new things, and to take risks. And I commend them for that. It has paid off multiple times, even in ways that the fans originally thought would be terrible. (See The Freshies after Atlanta for some Reddit-Shaming)
However, it’s time to move on from one change - the Championship race at Phoenix. Yes, Phoenix is a strong market for NASCAR. Yes, Homestead was starting to get a little run-down. Yes, the weather shouldn’t ever be a factor in Arizona in November.
But it’s time to move on. Whether that means back to Homestead, or to somewhere new altogether, it doesn’t matter. Phoenix has had its time. It hasn’t produced the greatest racing, particularly with the Next-Gen car, so it’s time to try something new.
If I had it my way, I’d like it to be a track they only visit once. I don’t want a Championship Preview in March.
Best Stats
It shouldn’t come as a huge shock that Christopher Bell led most of the major stat categories, but there are still some interesting ones to check out.
Tyler Reddick and his boss Denny Hamlin tied leading the most laps on the day, each with 68.
It’s also no surprise that Erik Jones lost the most positions while under green flag conditions, as NASCAR decided his scrape of the wall wasn’t enough to throw a caution. His pass differential was a field-worst -36.
The driver with the best Average Finish right now is Ty Gibbs. He (8.75) and Ross Chastain (9.50) are the only two drivers with an AF below ten.
There are only four drivers remaining who have run every single lap through four races. Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, and Ty Gibbs.
Worst (or Best?) Time to Panic
It’s early in the season. It’s not necessarily time to hit the panic button. But there are a few drivers who may be getting close.
Joey Logano is just barely inside the Top-30 in points. He’s running behind Noah Gragson, who also got a 35 pt penalty a few weeks ago.
Josh Berry stepped into what should be upper-tier equipment and has underwhelmed so far this season. He hasn’t finished better than 20th yet.
Brad Keselowski is faring better than the other two in this section, but he’s still below the playoff cutoff line. RFK took a big step last season, and it would be a shame to have that momentum move the wrong way.
Best Creep Shot