Welcome to our NASCAR Cup Series Projections page. The Playoff Forecast is where you will find the probability of each 2021 charter making the playoffs, their chances of advancing to future rounds, and also their odds of winning the Championship.
Projections are calculated by simulating the 2021 Cup Series schedule 50,000 times, using a top-secret predictive formula that is based on 3 important factors: Driver History @ Each Track, Driver Recent Overall History, and Team Performance.
This page will be updated every week, incorporating each week’s real results to (ideally) make the formula more accurate. Keep checking back to see how your favorite driver’s odds change from week to week!
*note – As 2021 is this project’s first season, some of the underlying formulas and data were tweaked after race 10 in order to better reflect the parity in the NASCAR Cup Series.
Forecast – After Race 22