Week Twenty-Six - Special Edition StatChat Power Rankings Before The Chase

Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

By Adam Carabine

Now that The Chase has arrived, we’ll be doing Power Rankings for all of the Chase Drivers each week leading up to the Championship, no matter where they lie within our formula.

Here's a special edition of our Power Rankings, getting you ready for The Chase. Power Rankings will now include our forecasted point totals, and where we see drivers finishing in this year's standings.

While finishing position is important, it’s not always indicative of the full picture.  StatChat rankings are determined using a large number of statistical inputs, with the heaviest emphasis placed on data from the last five races. Let's look at our playoff drivers:

Chris Buescher – This week: 19 – Last week: 18

Chris Buescher enters the playoffs as the lowest scoring driver in our Power Rankings.  After the points reset to start The Chase, he’s actually in 10th  place, but his record lately has left a little to be desired.  With only one DNF on the season, he could just outlast his competition if he keeps things clean.  His chances at a championship are pretty slim, though.

Points Forecast:  2,210

Championship Forecast:  0.02%

Finishing Position Forecast: 12th

Chase Elliott – This week: 17 – Last week: 19

Chase Elliott has been quiet, despite having two wins on the season.  He’s been fairly consistent, but seems to lack some of the killer instinct that sets some other drivers apart.  He’ll want to up his Stage Point game, as he ranks 15th of all drivers in that category.  He starts The Chase in 8th place, but his championship hopes are also not great.

Points Forecast:  2,255

Championship Forecast:  0.73%

Finishing Position Forecast: 9th

Carson Hocevar – This week: 16 – Last week: 15

Carson Hocevar had such a strong run in the late spring/early summer, including his win at Talladega, but things have cooled off lately.  Hocevar is still young, and sometimes plagued by bad decision making, but certainly has talent.  If he can turn things around get his momentum going again, he could be dangerous. 

Points Forecast:  2,207

Championship Forecast:  0.02%

Finishing Position Forecast: 13th

Daniel Suarez – This week: 14 – Last week: 16

Suarez has certainly silenced some of his critics after his breakup from Trackhouse last year.  He made The Chase, and none of the Trackhouse drivers did.  He is currently having his best statistical year of his Cup career.  Let us not forget his win at the crown jewel Coca-Cola 600 race earlier this year – and Charlotte’s oval returns to the playoff lineup this year too.  He starts The Chase in 11th, and probably has too much ground to make up for a Championship run, but this is a good momentum builder for his career.

Points Forecast:  2,202

Championship Forecast:  0.02%

Finishing Position Forecast: 14th

Kyle Larson – This week: 13 – Last week: 10

Often touted as one of the best drivers in the world, Larson has unfortunately kind of limped his way into The Chase.  Maybe that’s a bit harsh, but expectations would be higher than him entering in 7th place.  He has the worst differential in Average Start vs. Average finish – he finishes races an average of 7.5 spots worse than he starts them.  However, the reigning champ just can’t be counted out, as he knows how to show up when the pressure rises. 

Points Forecast:  2,284

Championship Forecast:  3.56%

Finishing Position Forecast: 4th  

Austin Cindric – This week: 12 – Last week: 11

Austin Cindric is a little higher in the Power Rankings due to a string of some solid weeks.  But clinching your spot in The Chase on the last race of the regular season isn’t exactly Championship material.  He’s had enough trouble on track to put him 30th in the standings for laps completed.  (He’s 446 laps off of a perfect run).  We have him finishing in the same

position he’s starting The Chase – 15th.

Points Forecast:  2,198

Championship Forecast:  0.02%

Finishing Position Forecast: 15th

William Byron – This week: 11 – Last week: 9

The winless William Byron has been another underwhelming Hendrick driver this year – relative to expectations.  However, Hendrick equipment isn’t to be overlooked, and he has a real chance of making up some ground in The Chase if the execution is there.  Byron’s still looking for his first Championship, and his position in The Chase of 13th isn’t exactly a great start.  We see him moving up, but not getting the crown just yet.

Points Forecast:  2,234

Championship Forecast:  0.25%

Finishing Position Forecast: 10th

Tyler Reddick – This week: 10 – Last week: 14

What a strange season it’s been for Tyler Reddick.  He looked like the clear championship favourite to start the year, and then had one of the worst falls from grace we’ve seen in some time.  The summer was not kind to Reddick.  However, five wins is nothing to scoff at, and we know that Toyotas have had speed this year.  If he can get his execution back to a higher level, he could genuinely compete for the Cup Championship.  He enters in 3rd place, so the points cushion could help too.

Points Forecast:  2,279

Championship Forecast:  2.46%

Finishing Position Forecast: 6th  

Bubba Wallace – This week: 9 – Last week: 7

Bubba Wallace also only recently clinched his position in The Chase, but he has been a car with great speed lately.  There is something to be said for peaking at the right time, and that could be Bubba.  He’s likely in too big of a hole (14th at the start of The Chase) to make his way to contending status, but we see him rising up the ranks a bit.

Points Forecast:  2,212

Championship Forecast:  0.03%

Finishing Position Forecast: 11th

Ryan Preece – This week: 7 – Last week: 8

The final seed in The Chase belongs to the man who exorcised his Daytona demons last week.  And in a way, he also exorcised his Cup Series demons, earning his first career Cup win after 248 other attempts.  Like Bubba, Preece probably doesn’t have the juice to make it up to the top of the standings, let alone moving up any spots. We still see him finishing 16th in The Chase, but that would still be a career-best for him.

Points Forecast:  2,179

Championship Forecast:  0.004%

Finishing Position Forecast: 16th  

Joey Logano – This week: 6 – Last week: 3

Joey Logano looked in danger of missing The Chase at some points earlier this season.  A strong second half of the regular season bumped him up in the standings (he’ll start 9th in The Chase), as well as in our Power Rankings.  Does he have it in him to get his fourth Cup Series Championship? In an even-year no less?  We think it’s a bit of a bridge too far this year, but he’s not showing any signs of slowing down just yet.

Points Forecast:  2,278

Championship Forecast:  2.71%

Finishing Position Forecast: 7th  

Ty Gibbs – This week: 5 – Last week: 4

Ty Gibbs has caught fire this year.  He’s always been a talented driver, though some might not love his (at times) prickly personality, but he’s had trouble translating that to consistent success in the Cup Series… until now.  He enters The Chase in 4th place, with his first two Cup wins under his belt this season.  His age might preclude him from being a true threat for the Championship just yet, and we see him faltering a bit in the postseason, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him lift the Cup Championship Trophy within the next 3 years.

Points Forecast:  2,278

Championship Forecast:  2.43%

Finishing Position Forecast: 8th

Chase Briscoe – This week: 4 – Last week: 5

Since taking over the 19 car from Martin Truex Jr., Briscoe has showed that he does deserve his spot in the Cup Series.  While his consistency could use some work, he’s definitely one to watch in The Chase this year.  He enters in 5th place, and could do some damage.  If he can clean up some of his DNFs (he’s had 4 this year already), he could certainly be in the conversation.

Points Forecast:  2,286

Championship Forecast:  3.88%

Finishing Position Forecast: 3rd 

Christopher Bell – This week: 3 – Last week: 6

Christopher Bell is the highest scoring driver still without a win in The Chase.  He’s entering into the playoffs in 6th place, and has seven 2nd-placed finishes.  His average finish in his last five races is below 7th, which is very impressive.  Bell may need to get back in the win column if he’d like to challenge for the Championship this year.

Points Forecast:  2,281

Championship Forecast:  2.90%

Finishing Position Forecast: 5th 

Denny Hamlin – This week: 2 – Last week: 1

Is it FINALLY Denny Hamlin’s year?  Possibly the greatest driver to never win a Championship, Denny enters The Chase with the highest points advantage of any driver after winning the Regular Season.  This year’s change to The Chase rather than the previous playoff format does seem to play into Denny’s favour.  Before we see any on-track action in this year’s postseason, we’re calling Denny as the favourite.

Points Forecast:  2,361

Championship Forecast:  58.68%

Finishing Position Forecast: 1st 

Ryan Blaney – This week: 1 – Last week: 2

Despite being the current leader of our Power Rankings, we see Ryan Blaney just falling short of the Championship this year.  He’s had a remarkably consistent season, and enters The Chase in 2nd place, but there are also a couple of red flags in his stats to keep an eye on.  He’s got 20 lead lap finishes out of a possible 26 this year.  Compare that to Denny Hamlin’s 25/26.  He also has an average finish differential of -2.5 spots, meaning he qualifies 2.5 spots better than he finishes, on average, this season. 

Honestly, Blaney makes probably the best case other than Hamlin for the Championship this year, but we’ll have to wait to see it play out!

Points Forecast:  2,328

Championship Forecast:  21.13%

Finishing Position Forecast: 2nd

Biggest Movers

Alex Bowman – This week: 29 – Last week: 26

Falls 3 places

Kyle Larson – This week: 13 – Last week: 10

Falls 3 places

Joey Logano – This week: 6 – Last week: 3

Falls 3 places

Josh Berry – This week: 8 – Last week: 12

Gains 4 places

Tyler Reddick – This week: 10 – Last week: 14

Gains 4 places

Rest of the List

8.	Josh Berry	LW: 12	+4
15.	SVG	LW: 13	-2
18.	Brad Keweloseki	LW: 17	-1
20.	Ross Chastain	LW: 21	+1
21.	Michael McDowell	LW: 24	+3
22.	Todd Gilliland	LW: 20	-2
23.	Zane Smith	LW: 22	-1
24.	Noah Gragson	LW: 23	-1
25.	Austin Dillon	LW: 25	--
26.	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	LW: 27	+1
27.	AJ Allmendinger	LW: 28	+1
28.	JH Nemechek	LW: 30	+2
29.	Alex Bowman	LW: 26	-3
30.	Riley Herbst	LW: 29	-1
31.	Cole Custer	LW: 31	--
32.	Ty Dillon	LW: 32	--
33.	Cody Ware	LW: 33	--
34.	Erik Jones	LW: 34	--
35	Connor Zilisch	LW: 35	--