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Welcome to our NASCAR Cup Series Projections page. The Playoff Forecast is where you will find the probability of each 2021 charter making the playoffs, their chances of advancing to future rounds, and also their odds of winning the Championship. Projections are calculated by simulating the 2021 Cup Series schedule 50,000 times, using a top-secret predictive formula that is based on 3 important factors: Driver History @ Each Track, Driver Recent Overall History, and Team Performance. This page will be updated every week, incorporating each week’s real results to (ideally) make the formula more accurate. Keep checking back to see how your favorite driver’s odds change from week to week! *note – As 2021 is this project’s first season, some of the underlying formulas and data were tweaked after race 10 in order to better reflect the parity in the NASCAR Cup Series. Forecast – After Race 20 Projected Winner of the Quaker State 400 @ Atlanta Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @StatChat_RR Or you can email directly: acarabine@racingrefresh.com Get all your StatChat Merch from the Racing Refresh online store! Is there an error? Is there a stat missing that you’d like to see? Let us know!

(Chase Elliott celebrates in victory lane at Road America) https://twitter.com/TeamHendrick/status/1411812987803996166?s=20 Chase Elliott claimed his second victory of the year and seventh career road course win in his career at Road America. The reigning champion seems to have a knack for solving these new road courses as he had won COTA weeks prior for his first win of this season. This win came with a strong showing as he would lead 24 of the 62 lap scheduled race, Elliott would never lose sight of the front of the pack. With this being another new track on the schedule, teams quickly learned how tough this place can be on equipment as Daniel Suarez would have power troubles during the early laps of stage one bringing out the first caution of the race. In hot race conditions, many drivers including AJ Allmendinger had issues with their helmets in keeping them cool and hydrated. The 78 car of Kyle Tilley would have problems as well as he had run off course into the sand though the caution did not wave, the first stage would end under green as William Byron wins stage one. Martin Truex Jr and Matt Dibenedetto lead the field to the start of stage two but it wasn't long before Austin Cindric would take the leading diving into turn one. Cindric would run into issues with his right front tire as he would spin out in third place but the race would stay green. In the closing laps of the stage two Corey Lajoie would spin and as green flag pit stops would take place after six laps to go, Tyler Reddick would take over the lead and win his second career stage win!. Stage three saw Dibenedetto put on what some would consider his best showing as he would restart third behind Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott and would take the lead from Busch and lead 10 laps until eventual race winner Elliott would take the lead with 25 to go and lead 24 laps for the win. This win at Road America marks the seventh career road course win for Chase Elliott, who leads all active drivers in road course wins and is third all time to Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon. Jockey Made In America 250 Top 5: 1. Chase Elliott 2. Christopher Bell 3. Kyle Busch 4. Kurt Busch 5. Denny Hamlin Honourable Mentions: 6. Chase Briscoe 7. Ross Chastain 11. Austin Dillon 14. Aric Almirola Written By: Matt Marr

With a flashback to the opening round of the NTT IndyCar Series season at Barber Motorsports Park, trouble did not take long to find the field at the Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio. At Mid-Ohio, cars are given the green flag on the backstretch to avoid mishaps going into the tight first turn. Going into turn four, James Hichcliffe got into his teammate Ryan Hunter-Reay which sent him around. While the bottleneck ensued, Romain Grosjean got into the returning Felix Rosenqvist which brought out the first caution of the day. The race restarted on lap four and polesitter Joesf Newgarden started pulling away from the rest of the field as Colton Herta and Marcus Ericsson rounded out the top three. In the top five, Will Power was the only driver who started on the primary black Firestone compound as everyone else started on the alternate red tires. Scott Dixon tried with all his might to pass Power who was holding him up on the harder compound. After taking an inside move on Power in the Keyhole (Turn Two), Power got in Dixon's draft going down the back stretch and tried to take the position back going into turn four. Dixon pinched Power in to the curb, made contact with him and sent Power around. Although no one could see Power through the think layer of smoke that was created when he spun, Ed Jones then collided into Power's car and both retired from the race. Restaring on lap ten, the top four all stayed on alternate tires and Alexander Rossi was the highest scoring driver on primaries. Fighting off the hard charging points leader of Alex Palou and Rinus Veekay. After 20 laps of racing, Newgarden has a 1.7 second lead over Herta. Herta had a 2.5 second lead over Ericsson. While everyone is making their first stops of the day, Colton Herta was coming in to make his first stop on lap 30. That stop led to disaster for Herta as a fuel probe malfunction led to Herta falling back to seventh place. At halfway, Newgarden had an 8.5 second lead over Ericsson. Rounding out the podium to this point was Scott Dixon who was under pressure by Alexander Rossi and Alex Palou. On lap 58, Herta again ran into pit road troubles as he stalled on pit road. Dropping him to ninth place after being passed by O'Ward and Grosjean. With 20 laps to go, Newgarden remained in the lead with Ericcson closing the gap to 6.5 seconds. Palou was third. While the battle between Dixon, Rossi, Rahal, and O'Ward got in a mini-pack on the race track. Newgarden then ran into rough lap traffic as his lead shrunk by about three seconds. Herta and Grosjean started to make ground on O'Ward and passed him as his balance began to fall off. Newgarden's lead evaporated coming with two to go as it dropped to 1.4 seconds as he tried to keep a clean track in front of him. Ericcson's late race charge was a couple laps too late as Newgarden held on to get his first win of the year. For Team Penske, the win at Mid-Ohio was the first win of the 2021 campaign and was fifty years and one day to his first win in the IndyCar Series that was by Mark Donohue at Pocono in 1971. For the NTT IndyCar Series and drivers, the series enjoys a month off as the next race takes place on the Streets of Nashville for the first running of the Music City Grand Prix on August 8th. Alex Palou hold on to a championship lead of 39 points over Pato O'Ward as the races remaining in the season trickles down to only six races to go until the championship finale at the Streets of Long Beach.

(Photo Source : Twitter.com/roadamerica)

(Photo Credit: IndyCar on Twitter) IndyCar and Indepedence Day is a combination like no other. A summer shootout in the Mid-West as the stars of the NTT IndyCar Series head to Mid-Ohio. The temperatures may be climbing, but the race for a championship is already at a boiling point as all roads lead to the streets of Long Beach to decide who takes home the Astor Cup. Below is everything you need to know for the Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio. Track Facts: The track is a fifteen turn road course that is built in to the natural land scape of Ohio. Measuring at 2.4 miles in length and is also the narrowest circuit on the IndyCar schedule at just 40 feet edge to edge. The track offers a good deal of passing opportunities. Turn One and turn two (The Keyhole), offers drivers the chance to use overtake as they set themselves up for the long back stretch where speeds can be up to 180 miles per hour before the hard right hand braking zone of turn four. The Esses and Thunder Valley offer close side by side racing opportunities as drivers will squeeze each other for every position on the race track. Event History: IndyCar first came to Mid-Ohio in 1980 with CART coming to the famed race track. They would continue to do so until 2003 when Paul Tracy and Forsythe Racing took the last checkered flag for CART at the track. The race would be revived in 2007 when the Indy Racing League came to town. Scott Dixon got his first win at the race track in 2007. It was his first of six wins there as well. Current winners in the field include Josef Newgarden, Graham Rahal, Simon Pagenaud, Will Power, Colton Herta, and Alexander Rossi Championship Standings: Top 3 1st: Alex Palou: 349 2nd: Pato O'Ward: -28 3rd: Scott Dixon: -53 2020 Event: Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, last year's event was a doubleheader. The Saturday event was dominated by Will Power, who also started on pole. He finished ahead of his Penske teammate Joesf Newgarden. Sunday's race was a bit more competitive as Colton Herta held off teammate Alexander Rossi and gave Andretti Autosport a sweep of the podium with Ryan Hunter-Reay rounding out the top three. Predictions: As the season has passed the halfway point a few weeks ago, we are starting to see the contenders for the Astor Cup as Palou, O'Ward, Dixon, and Newgarden are considered the favorites from here on out. Newgarden has a lot of work to do and there is still enough time to make up ground. Although it could be too much to handle as the youth movement has come to IndyCar, Palou and O'Ward will not make it easy on the former champions running behind them. Team Penkse still has no wins to write home about so far in 2021. Newgarden and Power are looking for redemption over the past couple of weeks as they are currently the fastest in the stable and will look to give Roger Penske his first trip to victory lane. As for the race, it's hard to go against Scott Dixon at Mid-Ohio as he is the active win leader there. But I am going to take Will Power to break through to victory lane this weekend. Schedule: (All times EST) Friday, July 2nd: IndyCar Practice - 2:30 P.M. on Peacock Saturday, July 3rd: IndyCar Practice - 9:05 A.M. on Peacock Saturday, July 3rd: IndyCar Group Qualifying: - 12:00 P.M. on Peacock Saturday, July 3rd: IndyCar Final Practice: - 3:30 P.M. on Peacock Sunday, July 4th: Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio (80 laps, 180.64 miles) - Noon EST on your local NBC affiliate

(Photo Source : Twitter.com/NASCAR)

(Photo Credit: John Mann Reuters) A heavyweight bout between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton for the F1 drivers championship is entering the ninth round as F1 returns to the Red Bull Ring for the second weekend in a row for the Austrian Grand Prix. After a dominating performance a week before, Max Verstappen looks to sweep both races in Austria. The exciting finale of a three-race stretch awaits us this weekend. Track Facts: Like Monza later this year, the Red Bull Ring is one of the fastest tracks on the F1 calendar each year. Where at multiple points on the circuit you can see speeds slightly above 200 miles per hour (about 328 kph). With only nine corners and three DRS zones, things come quickly and encourages action with the track being one of the widest on the calendar. Coming to turn one (which is named after the famed F1 driver Niki Lauda) an uphill, right-hand turn that comes off the tail end of the first DRS zone that is on the main straight. The longest straightaway leading to turn two also has another DRS zone and is the fastest part of the race track, that leads to the hardest braking zone at the circuit with speeds being as low as 60 miles per hour. Coming off of two and going into a downhill right-hand corner is another DRS zone that can see speeds up to 195 miles per hour. This track is very power dependent with an average on throttle time at 71% of the entire lap The track record is held by Valtteri Bottas with a blazing fast time of 1:02.94. Only three drivers in the field have won in Austria; Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri Bottas, and Max Verstappen. Event History: Formula One has been going to the Red Bull Ring since 1970 when Jacky Ickx took his Ferrari to the winners circle before the track was reconfigured to the current layout in 1987. Max Verstappen and Valtteri Bottas have both won this race twice, tying them with the F1 greats such as former world champions Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg. Lewis Hamilton, the only other active winner in the Austrian Grand Prix, only won the event once back in 2016. 2020 Event: By only a couple hundredths of a second, Bottas qualified first over his teammate Hamilton for the opening event for the 2020 Formula One World Championship. Trouble came early for Max Verstappen as he began to slow down due to an electrical issue for his Red Bull Honda which forced him to retire. Bottas had the car to beat as he held on to take the first win of the season. Rounding out the podium was the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc and the McLaren of Lando Norris. Predictions: After seeing the dominating performance by Verstappen last week at the Red Bull Ring, it would be a difficult decision to go against the young man from the Netherlands. So your betting favorites would be Hamilton, Verstappen, or Bottas taking the win this weekend. But I wouldn't count out Sergio Perez to take the win or a podium finish away as he was gaining ground on Bottas late last weekend. Even though Pierre Gasly did not even complete one lap, he had great pace in each on-track session last weekend as he could be a challenger in the midfield battle with Ferrari and McLaren. Speaking of McLaren, Lando Norris has been the only driver to score points for the team as Daniel Ricciardo's awful start to the season continues. With rain being in the forecast for this weekend, look for Lewis Hamilton to take the victory this weekend as the championship battle gets more cut-throat from here on out. How to Watch: You can catch the Austrian Grand Prix on ESPN at 9:55 A.M. EST. For more Forumla One news and race analysis check back in on RacingRefresh.com. We will continue to cover F1 all the way until Abu Dhabi.