By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Bubba Wallace Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images No. 23 Car – 23XI Racing   2025 Stats Standings 11 th Wins 1 Points 2,256 Stage Points 203 Stage Wins 4 Laps Led 378 Lead Lap Finishes 21 Average Finish 18.5 DNFs 8 Races since last win 14   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Bubba Wallace had a solid year last year, and success in 2026 would be to build on that and continue to be a threat for wins.  He’s clearly got skills on the drafting tracks, but maybe surprised some with his win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  A win and a spot in The Chase are a good start to a successful year, though maybe even a little more is possible.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Multiple wins at drafting tracks, and another at a 1.5-mile track for good measure.  If 23XI keeps growing as a team, and the equipment level is there, Wallace could have the skillset to do it.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think the competition is fierce this year, and so Wallace will struggle to get multiple wins.  I think one is definitely doable, and if he can lower his DNF rate this year, he’ll be in The Chase.   Bold Prediction? Bubba Wallace wins the Daytona 500

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Shane Van Gisbergen Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images Moving from No. 88 Car to No. 97 Car – Trackhouse Racing   2025 Stats Standings 12 th Wins 5 Points 2,232 Stage Points 76 Stage Wins 3 Laps Led 312 Lead Lap Finishes 20 Average Finish 21.0 DNFs 4 Races since last win 4   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Clearly Shane Van Gisbergen is an absolute beast on the road courses.  It would be shocking if he went winless in 2026.  However, I think a successful year for SVG would be to continue to grow his oval skills.  We saw glimpses of progress near the tail end of last year, but he’ll want that to keep getting better so he can become a more well-rounded (no pun intended) driver in NASCAR.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? With four road courses on the schedule in 2026, best-case would be that SVG wins them all.  That’s not really all that crazy to imagine, but a few things would still have to go right for him to accomplish that.  Best-case is that he wins all four, but also makes The Chase, due to increased winner points and an improved oval package.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? SVG is going to be challenged this year on the road courses.  There are some of the old guard, who are no slouches on the lefts and rights – Elliott, Reddick, etc. and you’ve also got to worry about up-and-comer Connor Zilisch, who has shown in the lower ranks to be quite the road course ringer, himself.  SVG will win a race in 2026, that feels certain.   Bold Prediction? SVG wins an oval race in 2026.  I’ll guess Richmond.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Alex Bowman Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images No. 48 Car – Hendrick Motorsports   2025 Stats Standings 13 th   Wins 0 Points 2,192 Stage Points 169 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 165 Lead Lap Finishes 23 Average Finish 17.4 DNFs 4 Races since last win 52   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Alex Bowman gets a tough rap at Hendrick, where the other three drivers on his team have found more success lately.  Many teams would be very happy to have Bowman on their roster, but he’s seen as the weak link at Hendrick.  For 2026, Bowman needs to get back into victory lane in order to call it a success.  He was consistent enough last season to make the playoffs without a win, and so he should also be able to make The Chase this year.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? This will now be five years removed since Bowman’s best Cup Series season, when he won four races.  What’s funny is that is his average finish since then has really only gotten 1.5-2 spots worse, but he isn’t finding ways to close out victories as much.  I don’t think it’s realistic to predict a 4-win season again, but two is doable, and I’ll say best-case scenario is three.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Bowman likely stays the number four driver at Hendrick Motorsports, but still has an objectively solid year.  He should be good to make it into The Chase, and challenge for a win or two.  Meanwhile, his teammates will outshine him again, causing many to feel he’s deserving of losing his seat.   Bold Prediction? Bowman finishes ahead of teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron in 2026.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Austin Cindric Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images No. 2 Car – Team Penske   2025 Stats Standings 14 th   Wins 1 Points 2,156 Stage Points 141 Stage Wins 3 Laps Led 325 Lead Lap Finishes 22 Average Finish 20.9 DNFs 3 Races since last win 26   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Austin Cindric is a hard guy to read.  He’s in top-tier equipment, and yet he’s clearly the ‘third driver’ on a team of three.  Teammates Logano and Blaney are out there winning championships, and Cindric is lucky if he squeaked into the playoffs.  When Cindric was a regular down in the Xfinity Series, we saw him being quite dominant on road courses, but for some reason we haven’t seen that translate to the Cup Series yet.  Success in 2026 for Cindric is probably to make it into The Chase, but it won’t be easy.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Cindric has shown that he’s solid at drafting tracks, and with some solid previous acumen on the road courses, let’s give him a win at Talladega, and Top 5s at the road courses – enough to get into The Chase.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? It’s hard to imagine Cindric winning any more than just a single race, and even that is probably most likely at a drafting track where luck can play a big part.  He’s a fringe contender to make The Chase at best.   Bold Prediction? Cindric goes winless and is out of a ride at the end of the season.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Austin Dillon Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images No. 3 Car – Richard Childress Racing   2025 Stats Standings 15 th   Wins 1 Points 2,152 Stage Points 27 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 119 Lead Lap Finishes 24 Average Finish 20.8 DNFs 3 Races since last win 11   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? For whatever reason, Austin Dillon seems to have figured out the magic sauce at Richmond.  He seems to be dominant there, and so success for him might look like another win at Richmond.  Again, like Josh Berry before him, he made his way into last year’s playoffs on a win-and-you’re-in rule, so it’s probably too high an order to make it into The Chase in ’26, but a win isn’t out of the question.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Austin Dillon wins at Richmond, and then picks up another win at a drafting track.  With the new points system where wins count for more, maybe that’s enough for him to sneak into The Chase?   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? RCR hasn’t been super strong in the last few years, and so it’s probably most likely that Dillon stays winless in 2026, and does not find his way into The Chase.    Bold Prediction? Richard Childress steps down at the end of the season, Austin Dillon retires from racing and takes over his grandfather’s role leading the team.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Josh Berry Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images No. 21 Car – Wood Brothers Racing   2025 Stats Standings 16 th Wins 1 Points 2,150 Stage Points 85 Stage Wins 1 Laps Led 207 Lead Lap Finishes 20 Average Finish 21.7 DNFs 9 Races since last win 31   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Josh Berry made the playoffs in 2025 because of the win-and-you’re-in rule, after he scored his first and only Cup Series victory at Las Vegas.  While another win isn’t completely out of the cards for him in 2026, Josh Berry is going to need to keep his car a bit cleaner in order to try and qualify for The Chase.  With 9 DNFs last year (second only to Cody Ware), that severely hurt his point totals.  Success is probably a cleaner year with less crashes, and more consistency.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? It’s funny that Berry’s lone win came at Las Vegas, as he’s actually known more as a short track driver.  For some reason, he’s always been great at Las Vegas, and with it being on the schedule twice, he could score another win there in 2026.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Berry most likely stays winless in 2026, particularly because of the equipment he’s in, and because the Cup Series field is pretty stacked.  Staying in the Top 20 of the final standings is probably where he finishes.   Bold Prediction? Berry wins BOTH Las Vegas races in 2026.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Chris Buescher Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images No. 17 Car – RFK Racing   2025 Stats Standings 17 th Wins 0 Points 889 Stage Points 95 Stage Wins 2 Laps Led 47 Lead Lap Finishes 28 Average Finish 14.3 DNFs 2 Races since last win 44   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Chris Buescher is a driver that should be in the playoffs.  He finished one spot out of the playoffs last season, and while the format has changed, he still belongs in The Chase.  Whether he can get a win or not doesn’t matter quite as much, but a successful season for Buescher and the 17 team would be to get into The Chase.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Buescher is two years removed from a three-win season – the best of his career so far.  Was it lightning in a bottle? Was it a lucky year? This might be the year for Buescher to answer those questions definitively – one way or the other.  Best-case is he returns to his winning ways and earns a couple of wins.  Three seems steep in this field, but two would be best.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Buescher is most likely to be on that Playoff/Chase bubble throughout the whole of the year, with it coming down to the final regular season race at Daytona to determine his fate.  It could go either way.  He might need some other things to go right with a growing program at RFK Racing – if the equipment is up to par, he might be able to do good things.   Bold Prediction? Buescher wins three races again this year.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Ryan Preece Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images No. 60 Car – RFK Racing   2025 Stats Standings 18 th Wins 0 Points 861 Stage Points 92 Stage Wins 2 Laps Led 133 Lead Lap Finishes 29 Average Finish 15.7 DNFs 2 Races since last win N/A   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Ryan Preece is another driver who is still looking for his first Cup Series win.  He’s been around the block a few times, and he slummed through some years in sub-par equipment, his best year ever was last season with RFK.  He nearly matched his career total in Top-10s and Top-5s in just a single season.  Preece has been knocking on the door and success for this team in ’26 would be to help him get that important first one.    Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Obviously Preece getting that first win would be a good scenario.  But let’s throw in a trip to The Chase with it as well.  I don’t see Preece contending for a championship anytime soon (or possibly ever), but he was so close to the playoffs last year, and could find himself there this year without the win-and-you’re-in rule, which ended up bumping him out of the playoffs last year.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think it’s actually more likely that Ryan Preece qualifies for The Chase while still remaining winless than it is that he wins a bunch of races.  His 250 th  Career Cup Series start will line up with the start of the Chase, assuming he stays healthy and starts every race.  While I’m sure he doesn’t love being winless in nearly 250 races, he’s always been a team-first guy, and would be happy to make it to The Chase whether he’s won or not.   Bold Prediction? Preece wins two races in ’26, both of which are at tracks less than a mile long.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Ty Gibbs Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images No. 54 Car – Joe Gibbs Racing   2025 Stats Standings 19 th   Wins 0 Points 783 Stage Points 94 Stage Wins 2 Laps Led 304 Lead Lap Finishes 27 Average Finish 17.9 DNFs 4 Races since last win N/A   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Ty Gibbs has been seemingly on the cusp of his first Cup Series win since he first came into the series as a rookie.  He’s in some of the top equipment on the track, and he has certainly been close at times.  Success involves that first win coming, and a spot in the playoffs (now known as the Chase).    Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Gibbs had five Top-5s last season, and eight the year before.  To say that he’s been close to that first win isn’t an overstatement.  Best-case for Ty Gibbs? He pops off in 2026 and earns multiple wins, which also paves the way for him to move up the points standings, and secure his spot in The Chase.    Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Gibbs has both talent and good equipment, but so do many other drivers.  I think it’s likely that Gibbs enjoys his first win, but then coasts through the rest of the year and doesn’t make it to The Chase.   Bold Prediction? Ty Gibbs goes winless again in 2026, and gets sent back down to the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series (formerly Xfinity) in 2027 to regain some confidence..

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Kyle Busch Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images No. 8 Car – Richard Childress Racing   2025 Stats Standings 21 st   Wins 0 Points 737 Stage Points 49 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 88 Lead Lap Finishes 25 Average Finish 17.9 DNFs 2 Races since last win 93   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? It’s been a rough go for Kyle Busch at Richard Childress Racing.  Things started out well with a 3-win season right off the bat, but he’s now winless in two straight seasons.  Whether he’s just getting longer in the tooth, his equipment isn’t where it needs to be, or a mixture of all of these variables, I think the only way Kyle Busch looks at 2026 as a successful year is if he scores a win.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? If it was just down to racing ability, Kyle Busch probably could win any race on the schedule, but something hasn’t quite clicked lately.  I won’t say that the best-case scenario is that he wins every race, but I do feel that if he is able to snap his winless streak, it might take some pressure off and he could win a few more.  Best-case, I think he wins one early in the season, and that propels him to a few more wins too.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Honestly, it’s hard to predict what Kyle Busch’s season is going to look like.  I think it’s either another winless season, or he pops off with 2 or 3.  I feel like a single win is the least likely outcome.    Bold Prediction? Kyle Busch retires at the end of this year.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Michael McDowell Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images No. 71 – Spire Motorsports   2025 Stats Standings 22 nd Wins 0 Points 734 Stage Points 53 Stage Wins 1 Laps Led 96 Lead Lap Finishes 24 Average Finish 18.2 DNFs 2 Races since last win 84   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? McDowell was brought into Spire Motorsports to be a veteran presence, and it does seem like Spire has gotten better with him on the team.  McDowell has some great skills with drafting tracks, and also on road courses, and if he can impart some of that knowledge to his teammates, that will be a success for Spire in general.  Personally, for McDowell, success would be earning a win, though making it into The Chase is probably out of the question.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? If Spire’s equipment can continue improving, McDowell could certainly be a threat on both drafting tracks and road courses.  He’ll be hard-pressed to compete against the SVGs, Allmendingers, and Ziliches of the world, but he could sneak one with some decent strategy.  Best-case? He wins two races this year.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Like I’ve said for some of the other Spire drivers, I think it’s most likely that they go winless again in 2026, but they take some positive strides to continue building their program, and challenge for Top 16-20 th  in the points.   Bold Prediction? Michael McDowell’s old sponsor from his Front Row Motorsports days, Love’s, is not pleased with their return on investment with Todd Gilliland and come back to McDowell on his 71 car.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Carson Hocevar Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images No. 77 – Spire Motorsports   2025 Stats Standings 23 rd Wins 0 Points 702 Stage Points 144 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 122 Lead Lap Finishes 17 Average Finish 21.6 DNFs 8 Races since last win N/A   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? I actually predicted Hocevar would win more than one race last season.  Obviously that aged poorly, but I think Hocevar is right on the brink of getting that first Cup Series victory.  He’s struggled with finding the line between making silly mistakes and aggressive racecraft, and if he can sort that out, he’ll be in victory lane in no time.  A success for Hocevar in 2026 is scoring his first career Cup Series win.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Hocevar’s got some major upside, and I think a best-case scenario is him earning multiple wins this year.  He’s also got some good history at multiple different styles of race tracks.  His best track by average finish is Nashville, but his 2 nd -best is Watkins Glen.  He could be a threat at many tracks, and best-case he wins a couple of them.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Hocevar getting a win is not entirely crazy, but I think it’s most likely that if he does manage to get one, it’ll be only just the one.  While he’s talented, the Cup Series field is stacked with many talented drivers – talent isn’t always enough. Hocevar will be in the conversation for a bunch of races, and could earn a win, but it’s not likely he gets more.   Bold Prediction? Hocevar wins three races in 2026 and gets a spot in The Chase.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Erik Jones Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images No. 43 Car – Legacy Motor Club   2025 Stats Standings 24 th Wins 0 Points 665 Stage Points 48 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 11 Lead Lap Finishes 22 Average Finish 20.2 DNFs 3 Races since last win 115   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? As has been stated in many other of these articles, the elimination of the win-and-you’re-in rules format will change many drivers’ playoff chances in 2026 – Erik Jones included.  The occasional win isn’t out of Jones’ ability level, but earning a spot in the playoffs (The Chase, sorry) is probably too hard now that points are the only factor.  A successful year would be a continued growing of the Legacy Motor Club program, and perhaps sneaking a win for Jones.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Both Darlington and Texas are tracks that have served Jones well over his Cup Series career.  He doesn’t have a win yet at Texas, but he has two at Darlington.  With Darlington on the schedule twice, he has three chances at his best tracks to earn a win.  It’s tempting to say the best-case scenario is him winning all three, but I think we still need to be realistic, so I’ll say that the best-case scenario is a Southern 500 win.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? It’s most likely that Jones will go winless again in 2026, but that doesn’t have to necessarily mean a failure for the driver of the 43.  LMC has taken some steps forward, and I think it’s likely that they continue that progress, albeit with no wins in ’26.   Bold Prediction? Jones wins both the Daytona 500 and the Southern 500, and still misses The Chase.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: John Hunter Nemechek Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images No. 42 Car – Legacy Motor Club   2025 Stats Standings 25 th Wins 0 Points 664 Stage Points 60 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 37 Lead Lap Finishes 22 Average Finish 20.3 DNFs 3 Races since last win N/A   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? John Hunter Nemechek is a fine young driver on a team that is still building.  The two Legacy drivers finished in the Top 25 of the points last season, but I think they would like to aim for Top 20 this year.  Nemechek is still looking for his first Cup Series win, but I don’t think LMC’s equipment is there just yet.    Best-Case Scenario in 2026? I don’t see Nemechek emerging as a true title threat just yet in his career, but he could challenge for a win at a drafting track.  With the removal of the win-and-you’re-in rule, Nemechek’s playoff hopes aren’t high, but a win isn’t completely crazy.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Nemechek and Legacy Motor Club are still slowly on the rise, but I don’t think they’re ready to jump to the next level just yet.  I think finishing in the Top 25 of the standings is a real possibility, with some extra consistency in finishes.   Bold Prediction? Nemechek wins the Daytona 500.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: AJ Allmendinger Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images No. 16 Car – Kaulig Racing   2025 Stats Standings 26 th   Wins 0 Points 649 Stage Points 66 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 42 Lead Lap Finishes 22 Average Finish 21.4 DNFs 8 Races since last win 56   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Allmendinger is seen as a road course wizard, but he’s got his work cut out for him with now both SVG and Connor Zilisch in the Cup Series field this year.  Success would be to win at a road course, while shoring up his oval package as well.  Kaulig hasn’t been exactly lights out in the Cup Series, save for some decent road course runs for Allmendinger in the past.  The playoffs are probably out of the question for this team, but he could certainly challenge for a win at a road course.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? With five road courses on the schedule this week, I would say best-case scenario for Allmendinger is that he wins two of them.  SVG has taken over the mantle of the Cup Series road course ringer, and while Connor Zilisch has some learning to do in a car that’s new to him, he could certainly get in Allmendinger’s way.  Stranger things have happened, but I think Allmendinger’s upper limit is two wins.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Allmendinger may unfortunately be out of his winning window in the Cup Series, especially with SVG around.  The most likely outcome is that he goes winless again this year.   Bold Prediction? While obviously Allmendinger’s best chances at a win are on a road course, this section is reserved for the BOLD.  On ovals, Allmendinger’s best career average finish is at Homestead, so while he won’t be in the playoffs, I’ll say he wins the final race of the year at Homestead, with the 2026 Champion coming in P2.