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By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Kyle Larson Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images No. 5 Car – Hendrick Motorsports   2025 Stats Standings 1 st Wins 3 Points 5,034 Stage Points 297 Stage Wins 10 Laps Led 1,126 Lead Lap Finishes 30 Average Finish 13.2 DNFs 2 Races since last win 24   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Kyle Larson is widely seen as one of the most talented drivers in the world, and with good reason.  He seems to be successful in whatever type of moving vehicle he jumps into.  Because of that, the expectations are higher, and anything other than winning the championship again this year would be seen as a letdown.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Larson wins multiple races and stays consistent enough to win the Championship.  He’s also pretty darn good at Homestead, the final track on the schedule.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think sometimes Larson gets bored out on the track because his skill level is so high.  Often it seems like some of his slip-ups are unforced human errors.  I think Larson wins a few this year, but comes up short of the championship.   Bold Prediction? The Indy 500 has perfect weather, and Larson misses out on another chance at the double, ahead of the Coca-Cola 600.  (He will win the 600 because he’s mad).

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Denny Hamlin Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images No. 11 Car – Joe Gibbs Racing   2025 Stats Standings 2 nd Wins 6 Points 5,031 Stage Points 232 Stage Wins 6 Laps Led 1,024 Lead Lap Finishes 31 Average Finish 14.0 DNFs 4 Races since last win 3   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Denny Hamlin has had such an awful offseason, that just finding some normalcy to start 2026 might be a success for him.  I’m hesitant to put him in Championship-or-bust mode this year, because he’s been in it for years, and last year might have been his best opportunity.  I’d like to see Denny Hamlin win another few races this year, and maybe the new Chase format plays into his hand to win a championship? Or maybe it doesn’t, and that’s okay.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Best-Case is going to have to be Hamlin winning the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.  He’s been pining over this since the start of his storied career, and it has not materialized.  He’s got the skills to do it, he just needs some luck, for a change.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? If you believe in the chaos of the universe, it’s probably most likely that Denny gets about as close to winning a championship as possible, and something super weird and fluky happens and he doesn’t.  Apologies to Denny fans everywhere.   Bold Prediction? I’m not sure how bold it is, but I’ll say Denny wins the Championship, and then immediately retires from driving.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Brad Keselowski Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images No. 6 Car – Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing (RFK)   2025 Stats Standings 20 th Wins 0 Points 762 Stage Points 90 Stage Wins 2 Laps Led 222 Lead Lap Finishes 23 Average Finish 18.5 DNFs 7 Races since last win 59   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? It’s been a tumultuous off-season for Brad K, as he broke his leg on a skiing trip.  In fact, he is not going to be ready to race in the Clash this year, with Corey LaJoie taking over his car for the exhibition race.  It’s hard to know whether a lack of offseason prep might hurt his 2026 campaign, but we may see some early growing pains.  Brad has been a couple of seasons now without a win, and a success for him and his No. 6 team would be to break that winless streak this year.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? We all know Brad Keselowski has skills at drafting tracks, so a best-case scenario for him would be to return and win the Daytona 500.  It resets his winless streak, and also gives him a great start returning from leg surgery in the offseason.  I don’t know if the playoffs are in the cards for him this season, but a win or two would certainly help.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Expect a sluggish start, which then creates a hole he can’t claw out of for the rest of the season.  Top 20 in points is probably doable, but with a leg surgery at his age, I expect his recovery will be slower than he’d like.   Bold Prediction? Keselowski isn’t medically cleared in time and misses the Daytona 500.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Chase Briscoe Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images No. 19 Car – Joe Gibbs Racing   2025 Stats Standings 3 rd Wins 3 Points 5,019 Stage Points 184 Stage Wins 6 Laps Led 884 Lead Lap Finishes 32 (tied 1 st  among all drivers) Average Finish 12.7 DNFs 4 Races since last win 2   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Briscoe had a breakout year last year, his first with his new team, JGR.  Briscoe showed great promise down in the Xfinity Series before coming up to Cup, but it felt like maybe there was something missing (it might have been good equipment).  Briscoe had a career-high three wins in the Cup Series last year.  It might be hard to expand on that for 2026, but certainly he has set a high bar for himself at JGR, and success will be based on how well he measures up to that.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? While I think Briscoe has the equipment to challenge for a championship, it might still be early days for him at JGR to push for one this year.  Though he made it to the Final Four last season and had a chance at the championship just by virtue of being in the final race, he probably needs to tighten up some loose strands before regularly competing for a championship – though I could be wrong.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think Briscoe has a bit of a JGR-sophomore slump and wins less than three, but still qualifies for The Chase and has an opportunity to finish in the Top 5 of the season standings.   Bold Prediction? Briscoe has won the Southern 500 twice in a row now, I’ll say he does it a third time!

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: William Byron Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images No. 24 Car – Hendrick Motorsports   2025 Stats Standings 4 th Wins 3 Points 5,004 Stage Points 317 (1 st  among all drivers) Stage Wins 9 Laps Led 1,330 (1 st  among all drivers) Lead Lap Finishes 30 Average Finish 14.5 DNFs 4 Races since last win 1   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Byron is another driver looking for his first career Cup Series championship, and has been on the cusp a few times.  Like Christopher Bell, the new format may play more into Byron’s favour, as he has been a very consistent driver.  While he has faltered under the ‘one-race-championship-race’ format, which can often be more luck-based than skill, The Chase might be just what he needs to capture it.  Expectations are high, and he likely needs to win it this year in order to count the season as a success.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? When it comes to these top-tier drivers on the top teams, the best-case they can hope for is winning the championship.  Byron is certainly capable of it, and will need a few things to go his way in order to secure his first one.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think multiple wins are likely for the 24 team, and while I’m not sold that he gets his first championship this year, it’s definitely not far off.  I do wonder if Byron sometimes gets lost in the shadow of his teammate Kyle Larson, at least from a team perspective at Hendrick Motorsports.  Larson is the golden boy, and maybe gets a bit more attention and care from the team.  I’m going to say the most likely outcome is a Top-3 finish in the standings.   Bold Prediction? Byron wins the Daytona 500 for the third time in a row.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Christopher Bell Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images No. 20 Car – Joe Gibbs Racing   2025 Stats Standings 5 th   Wins 4 Points 2,418 Stage Points 211 Stage Wins 2 Laps Led 282 Lead Lap Finishes 29 Average Finish 11.2 (1 st  among all drivers) DNFs 3 Races since last win 7   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Christopher Bell had a really solid start to his 2025 campaign, winning 3 races in a row at Atlanta, COTA, and Phoenix.  He stayed winless after that until the Bristol Night Race, and so I’m sure Bell and his team would prefer a bit more consistency spread out through the year.  At this point in his career, Christopher Bell needs to be going for championship-or-bust.  However, I do think the new Chase format plays well into his hands and skillset.    Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Multiple wins, his first career Cup Series Championship, and finally a way to silence the haters (does he have many? I’m not sure).    Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think Christopher Bell might be my favourite to win the championship in 2026.  The new Chase format will really reward consistency, and that has been a strong suit for Bell over the years.  He’s in some of the best equipment on the track, and I think it could easily be his year.   Bold Prediction? I don’t know if it’s bold at this point to say he wins the championship, so I’ll say he finishes every race on the lead lap.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Ryan Blaney Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images No. 12 Car – Team Penske   2025 Stats Standings 6 th Wins 4 Points 2,403 Stage Points 314 Stage Wins 9 Laps Led 831 Lead Lap Finishes 27 Average Finish 14.6 DNFs 8 Races since last win 0   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Ryan Blaney had such an up and down year in 2025, at the very least, a little bit more consistency would be a success for him this year.  He tied for the second-most stage wins last year, but also tied for the third-most DNFs.  He had four wins on the season, and that’s a good measuring stick.  Success might not need to be another four (or more) wins this year, but definitely a solid spot in The Chase with multiple wins, otherwise it’ll be seen as a regression.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? If Blaney can clean up some of the bad luck and DNF issues he had last year, he is certainly a driver to watch out for in the Championship conversation.  He’s consistently up front (unless he gets involved in someone else’s mess – maybe wreck avoidance might be a thing to focus on this year?), and this year’s Chase format will reward some consistency moreso than the previous format.  Best-case scenario is that Blaney wins the Championship.    Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Honestly, best-case scenario and most likely outcome aren’t all that far off from each other.  I think Blaney has a really decent shot at the title this year.  If he doesn’t win it, he definitely finishes within the Top 5 in the season standings.   Bold Prediction? Blaney loses the championship by one point in a nail-biter at Homestead.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Joey Logano Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images No. 22 Car – Team Penske   2025 Stats Standings 7 th Wins 1 Points 2,330 Stage Points 168 Stage Wins 3 Laps Led 577 Lead Lap Finishes 31 Average Finish 15.3 DNFs 3 Races since last win 25   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Joey Logano is the only three-time NASCAR Champion in the field, and at this point anything other than a fourth one is likely not a success.  While Joey has likely already cemented his spot in the NASCAR Hall of Fame, getting above three championships is super rarified air, and certainly something he strives for.  Take issue with the format for his championships all you like, but he won them fair and square.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Logano could easily get multiple wins, I would cap it at three or four.  He’s a well-rounded driver who can get a win at any style of track, so that’s not completely out of the question. Luck always plays a role, but I could see him winning the Regular Season Championship.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Logano seems to always do better in even-numbered years, so 2026 could be his year again.  It’ll be interesting to see if any of Team Penske’s strategy changes this year with the updated Chase format, as it seemed like they tailored their program to run well in the playoffs the last few years.  With no elimination races anymore, maybe that takes a little adjustment on their part? Logano is good for at least a win a year, and he’ll make it into the Chase.  It’s hard to predict anything else.   Bold Prediction? Joey Logano carries on the even-year tradition, and wins his fourth championship – tying Jeff Gordon.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Chase Elliott Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images No. 9 Car – Hendrick Motorsports   2025 Stats Standings 8 th Wins 2 Points 2,325 Stage Points 193 Stage Wins 1 Laps Led 454 Lead Lap Finishes 32 (tied 1 st ) Average Finish 12.6 DNFs 3 Races since last win 5   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Was 2025 the quietest two-win season of Elliott’s career? To be honest, even I had forgotten he won twice last year.  (It was at Atlanta 2 and Kansas for those who also forgot.)  Two wins is nothing to scoff at, but I think Elliott and his rabid fan base demand more of him.  Many would say that anything short of a championship is unsuccessful, but I’ll say he needs to finish in the Top 5 of the points to have a good year.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Chase Elliott is certainly capable of winning the championship in 2026.  In fact, I would argue that the new format plays more into his quietly consistent style than any other driver.  While I’m not sure 2026 is the year of Elliott, I think best-case scenario is a dominant championship win for him and the 9 team.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think Elliott finishes near the top of the average finish charts, probably has plenty of laps led, and has a respectable post-season run, but I don’t see him winning this year’s championship.   Bold Prediction? Chase Elliott wins at a road course this year, breaking his winless streak on road courses in the Next Gen era.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Tyler Reddick Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images No. 45 Car – 23XI Racing   2025 Stats Standings 9 th Wins 0 Points 2,309 Stage Points 213 Stage Wins 2 Laps Led 169 Lead Lap Finishes 30 Average Finish 14.5 DNFs 1 (best in the field) Races since last win 38   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Tyler Reddick can proudly say that he was the highest finishing driver without a win in 2025, though that’s likely not his favourite stat.  At the very least, Reddick needs to return to Victory Lane in 2026, and probably pretty fast.  The longer he goes without getting another win, the more that doubt can creep in and he can lose confidence.  Success will be at least one win, and a Top 10 finish on the season and in The Chase.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? It wasn’t long ago that Reddick was the Regular Season Champion, with three wins on the year.  That might be a tall order to repeat, but three wins on the year is not crazy.  Reddick is gifted at a bunch of different styles of tracks, and has solid equipment at 23XI.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? If Reddick can win within the first 5-7 races, I think he gets two wins minimum on the season.  He will definitely make it to The Chase, and finish in the Top 10 in the points standings.   Bold Prediction? Reddick pops off and wins five this year.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Ross Chastain Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images No. 1 Car – Trackhouse Racing   2025 Stats Standings 10 th Wins 1 Points 2,267 Stage Points 109 Stage Wins 2 Laps Led 80 Lead Lap Finishes 29 Average Finish 15.8 DNFs 4 Races since last win 23   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Ross Chastain is a driver who has always ridden the line of being competitive and overly aggressive, and in recent years it does seem like he’s lost some of his swagger.  Success for Ross Chastain might not just be a win in 2026, though that’s important for the 1 team.  I’d like to see Chastain win, make The Chase, and do so in a way that helps him rediscover that aggression, without crossing the line.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? I’m not sure I’m ready to have Ross Chastain as a championship pick yet, but I’ll say best-case scenario for him is to be in the running for the Championship with two races to go.  The new Chase format means we won’t have a winner-takes-all final race at Homestead, but a collection of 10 races leading to the finale.  I think the best Chastain can hope for is to be within striking distance while entering the second-to-last race, at Martinsville.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Ross Chastain has the capability to be a Top 5 driver in the sport, but I think more realistically he will finish within the Top 10.    Bold Prediction? I’m going for it.  Ross Chastain wins the 2026 Championship.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Bubba Wallace Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images No. 23 Car – 23XI Racing   2025 Stats Standings 11 th Wins 1 Points 2,256 Stage Points 203 Stage Wins 4 Laps Led 378 Lead Lap Finishes 21 Average Finish 18.5 DNFs 8 Races since last win 14   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Bubba Wallace had a solid year last year, and success in 2026 would be to build on that and continue to be a threat for wins.  He’s clearly got skills on the drafting tracks, but maybe surprised some with his win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  A win and a spot in The Chase are a good start to a successful year, though maybe even a little more is possible.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? Multiple wins at drafting tracks, and another at a 1.5-mile track for good measure.  If 23XI keeps growing as a team, and the equipment level is there, Wallace could have the skillset to do it.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? I think the competition is fierce this year, and so Wallace will struggle to get multiple wins.  I think one is definitely doable, and if he can lower his DNF rate this year, he’ll be in The Chase.   Bold Prediction? Bubba Wallace wins the Daytona 500

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Shane Van Gisbergen Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images Moving from No. 88 Car to No. 97 Car – Trackhouse Racing   2025 Stats Standings 12 th Wins 5 Points 2,232 Stage Points 76 Stage Wins 3 Laps Led 312 Lead Lap Finishes 20 Average Finish 21.0 DNFs 4 Races since last win 4   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Clearly Shane Van Gisbergen is an absolute beast on the road courses.  It would be shocking if he went winless in 2026.  However, I think a successful year for SVG would be to continue to grow his oval skills.  We saw glimpses of progress near the tail end of last year, but he’ll want that to keep getting better so he can become a more well-rounded (no pun intended) driver in NASCAR.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? With four road courses on the schedule in 2026, best-case would be that SVG wins them all.  That’s not really all that crazy to imagine, but a few things would still have to go right for him to accomplish that.  Best-case is that he wins all four, but also makes The Chase, due to increased winner points and an improved oval package.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? SVG is going to be challenged this year on the road courses.  There are some of the old guard, who are no slouches on the lefts and rights – Elliott, Reddick, etc. and you’ve also got to worry about up-and-comer Connor Zilisch, who has shown in the lower ranks to be quite the road course ringer, himself.  SVG will win a race in 2026, that feels certain.   Bold Prediction? SVG wins an oval race in 2026.  I’ll guess Richmond.

By Adam Carabine Counting down the final 30 days to the 2026 Daytona 500, we are looking at last year's Top 30 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series. Today's driver: Alex Bowman Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images No. 48 Car – Hendrick Motorsports   2025 Stats Standings 13 th   Wins 0 Points 2,192 Stage Points 169 Stage Wins 0 Laps Led 165 Lead Lap Finishes 23 Average Finish 17.4 DNFs 4 Races since last win 52   What Does Success Look Like in 2026? Alex Bowman gets a tough rap at Hendrick, where the other three drivers on his team have found more success lately.  Many teams would be very happy to have Bowman on their roster, but he’s seen as the weak link at Hendrick.  For 2026, Bowman needs to get back into victory lane in order to call it a success.  He was consistent enough last season to make the playoffs without a win, and so he should also be able to make The Chase this year.   Best-Case Scenario in 2026? This will now be five years removed since Bowman’s best Cup Series season, when he won four races.  What’s funny is that is his average finish since then has really only gotten 1.5-2 spots worse, but he isn’t finding ways to close out victories as much.  I don’t think it’s realistic to predict a 4-win season again, but two is doable, and I’ll say best-case scenario is three.   Most Likely Outcome in 2026? Bowman likely stays the number four driver at Hendrick Motorsports, but still has an objectively solid year.  He should be good to make it into The Chase, and challenge for a win or two.  Meanwhile, his teammates will outshine him again, causing many to feel he’s deserving of losing his seat.   Bold Prediction? Bowman finishes ahead of teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron in 2026.